Bitcoin lottery mining, without the hype
Know your real block odds before you chase the next terahash.
A practical calculator and gear guide for Bitaxe, NerdMiner, and solo mining hobbyists who want better decisions, cleaner tuning, and fewer wasted parts.
Small miners, honest math
Lottery mining has long odds, but the setup still deserves good tools. Start with your hashrate, compare realistic time horizons, then decide whether more cooling, power, or hardware is actually worth it.
- Free
- No account, no login
- Honest
- Expected value, not hype
- Useful
- Gear and tuning next steps
Solo block odds calculator
How likely is your miner to find a block?
Enter your hashrate and the current network difficulty. The calculator estimates expected time, daily odds, monthly odds, yearly odds, and rough expected value before electricity.
This uses the standard approximation: probability per hash is about 1 / (difficulty x 2^32). Real mining is random; averages are not promises.
Default inputs were refreshed July 6, 2026. Edit price, difficulty, power, and cost fields whenever conditions change.
- expected BTC per year before fees and electricity.
- estimated yearly electricity cost.
Upgrade sanity check
Does the next miner actually move the needle?
Compare your current setup against a possible upgrade before you buy another board, PSU, fan, or bundle.
Field guides
Start with the guides people are already searching for
Bitaxe Gamma tuning without cooking the board
Frequency, voltage, thermal limits, stability checks, and when to back down.
Read guideBest low-cost upgrades for lottery miners
Power supplies, cables, fans, meters, heatsinks, and where cheap parts become false economy.
Read guideSolo pools compared for hobby miners
What matters: uptime, payout rules, fees, latency, transparency, and block notification history.
Read guideLottery mining odds explained plainly
Why one terahash is still tiny, why luck streaks happen, and what expected value really means.
Read guideBitaxe vs NerdMiner vs USB sticks
A comparison article for beginners deciding whether they want learning, odds, or desk appeal.
Read guideProject thesis
The white paper makes the mission explicit
Block Odds Lab is not a lucky-number promise. It is a probability-first research and tooling project for hobby miners who want honest odds, practical setup decisions, and a cleaner path from free tools to sustainable products.
Gear basics
Practical gear coverage
Focus on parts that improve stability first: power, cables, cooling, meters, and desk setup. A tiny miner does not need hype. It needs clean power, controlled heat, and a way to measure changes.
Weekly watchlist
Weekly lottery mining watchlist
Useful changes, not noise. Difficulty changes, firmware releases, price drops, restocks, pool issues, and one practical tuning note.
Start with the free tuning log now, then use it to decide which setting is actually stable enough to keep.
Download tuning logWhat the watchlist will cover
Difficulty changes, firmware notes, gear price drops, restocks, pool status, and one practical tuning tip each week.
Quick answers
Common lottery mining questions
Can a Bitaxe actually find a Bitcoin block?
Yes, but the odds are extremely small. A Bitaxe can submit valid work like any miner, but its hashrate is tiny compared with the full Bitcoin network.
Does a solo pool improve my odds?
No. A solo pool helps your miner submit work and receive credit if luck hits. Your odds still come from hashrate, network difficulty, and time.
What should I upgrade first?
Start with stability: power supply, short quality cable, airflow, and a power meter. Measure before spending more money on hashrate.
When is another miner worth buying?
Use the upgrade sanity check. If the odds barely change and the net expected value is negative, buy only for learning or fun, not profit.
Is this financial advice?
No. Block Odds Lab is an education and tooling project for hobby miners. Mining outcomes are random, and expected value is not a promise.